development of a model for population forecasting

ABSTRACT

This research work is concerned with the development of a model for population forecasting.  The methodology and assumption used for developing population forecast model where developed with Fund Growth model of  population.  The accuracy of the census Bureau’s forecasting efforts apparently has improved during the past two decade, this work is done with the aim of  studying all the processes in manual forecasting on population census, with faster, easier, accuracy and efficiently, in the course of achieving  these objectives, different data gathering tools used to gather information from National population census commission (N.P.C) and journals ,the growing literature on population forecasting was examined with curious paradox, despite continuing refinements in the specification of models used to represent population forecast, a detailed literature review on the existing  literatures on the population census and forecasting were reviewed, a stated objective were drawn up and how to combat the myriad problem and designed of a pro-active population forecast to avert this short fall were implemented utilizing a model population conclusively, the model for population census forecasting can predict future population at burst time and efficiency and reliability at given time.

CHAPTER ONE/INTRODUCTION

Background of the study

Population is often used simply to refer to the total number of a given piece or a set of item from which samples are taken for statistical analysis.  Population census is the procedure of systematically acquiring and recording information about the members of a given population. It is a regularly occurring and official count of a particular population, the term is used mostly in connection with national population and housing censuses; other common censuses include agriculture, business, and traffic censuses. In the latter cases the elements of the ‘population’ are farms, businesses, and so forth, rather than people. The United Nations defines the essential features of population and housing censuses as “individual enumeration, universality within a defined territory, simultaneity and defined periodicity”, and recommends that population censuses be taken at least every 10 years    (Suhato, 1995).

Population refers to the universe of human beings with distinct individual /group characteristics such as total number (i.e. size), composition (age, sex, marital status, and literacy) distribution in space and changes in these attributes. In population studies uses is increasingly being made of non-demographic events to explain and predict variations in demographic variables such as birth rates, death rates, migration rates, the composition and size of the population. (Umoh, 2001).

A population census is the counting of all the people living in a country at a particular time. It collects information on the size, distribution, composition and other social/economic characteristic of population, (National Population Commission 2005).

Population forecasting is a future estimate indicating how the population size will increase arbitrary. It is therefore what the future population would be. Population projection is based upon reasonable assumption on the future course of fertility, mortality, migration (Umoh, 2001).

Population forecasting are calculations base on models which show the future development of a population when certain assumptions are made about the future course of population change, usually with respect to fertility, mortality and migration. They are in general purely formal calculations, developing the implications of the assumptions that are made. (Shryock and Siegel, 1980)

A prediction or forecast is a statement about the way things will happen in the future, often but not always based on experience or knowledge. While there is much overlap between prediction and forecast, a prediction may be a statement that some outcome is expected, while a forecast may cover a range of possible outcomes, although guaranteed information about the information is in many cases impossible, prediction is necessary to allow plans to be made about possible developments. Statistical agencies traditionally deal with the uncertainty of forecasting population variables by producing two or more forecasts of fertility or mortality (or both), and then calculating a range of forecasts. For instance, Statistics Norway expects the number of children aged 6–12 in Norway in 2010 to be between 401,000 and 436,000, depending on whether fertility is low or high — that is, on whether women will have an average of 1.5 or 2.1 children, respectively, in 2010 (Statistics Norway, 1999).

A population forecast is an estimate of future population growth. It is based on a review of historic population growth and assumptions about future demographic and economic trends, Census can be contrasted with sampling in which information is obtained only from a subset of a population, census data is commonly used for research, business marketing, and planning, as well as a baseline for sampling surveys. Census counts are necessary to adjust samples to be representative of a population by weighting them as is common in opinion polling. Similarly, stratification requires knowledge of the relative sizes of different population strata which are derived from census enumerations. In some countries, census data are used to apportion electoral representation (Uta, 2000).

Forecasts of the size and structure of the population are central to social and economic planning, from the provision of services in the short term to policy development in the long term. Not least of the demographic challenges facing developed countries is the rapid ageing of the population. Already developed-country populations are experiencing unprecedented large elderly proportions. The major driver of this ageing process is the fertility fluctuations of the past, notably the post-war baby boom coupled with the low fertility of recent times, but declining mortality is also significant. One response to population ageing and the attendant shortage of labour to provide for the elderly has been an increase in immigration to ‘replace’ or make up for past shortfalls in births (Bongaarts, 1982).

Populations can change through three processes: fertility, mortality, and         migration. Fertility involves the number of children that women have and is to be contrasted with fecundity (a woman’s childbearing potential) (Bamgbose, 1998). According to Bamgbose (1998), the term fertility and birth are synonymously used to refer to the number of children given birth to by a woman. Similarly, Bangaarts (1982) stipulates that the basic purpose of measuring fertility is to enable inference to be drawn about the likelihood of birth occurring within a period of time. He also said that the basic measurements are proportional term as rate of fertility.

Afolayan (1982) also defined fertility as an attribute of humanity, frequently of birth i.e. proportion of birth in a specified number of human populations. Bongaarts (1982), postulates that 75% of married women in a society need to be contraceptive users in other to reduce the level of fertility in the population. The explanation is that most women report their method of periodic abstinence, a method with a high fertility rate.

Migration is the act or process of moving from one place to another with the intent of staying at the destination permanently or for a relatively long period of time. It may be embarked upon out of one’s decision or  on compulsion. (Umoh, 2001). The inability of available opportunities within the immediate environment of man to satisfy his unlimited economic, social, cultural, and physical expectation at a given point in time has often been behind man’s desire to move to other places. Therefore, from earliest times, men are known to have moved either individually or in-groups to new places in search for food, wealth, better environmental conditions and security (Umoh, 2001).

Migration refers to the movement of persons from a locality of origin to a destination place across some pre-defined, political boundary. Migration researchers do not designate movements ‘migrations’ unless they are somewhat permanent. Thus demographers do not consider tourists and travelers to be migrating. While demographers who study migration typically do so through census data on place of residence, indirect sources of data including tax forms and labor force surveys are also important (Odewumi, 2000).

Mortality is the study of the causes, consequences, and measurement of processes affecting death to members of the population. Demographers most commonly study mortality using the Life Table, a statistical device which provides information about the mortality conditions (most notably the life expectancy) in the population (Life Table 2000).

Death is a sure event that we must all end with. The occurrence of death (mortality), unlike sickness it is not reversible. It also occurs once, bringing to an end of a person existence. Death occurs if at a particular point in time where an illness exists over duration, while the census of death may be debatable. It’s an occurrence in most census in apparent even to a lame man’s without medical expertise (Umoh, 2001).

The modern census is essential to international comparisons of any kind of statistics and censuses collect data on many attributes of the population, not just how many people they are, although population estimates remain an important function of the census.

Immigration has thus become a major driver of population change in many developed countries, and in some cases amounts to as much as 50% of the number of births; Australia and Spain are examples, Population forecasting must take proper account of all three of these components of demographic change that is mortality, fertility and migration. Mortality forecasting has received considerable attention in recent years. Methods for forecasting fertility and migration are less well developed: as with human behaviour in general, these demographic behaviours are difficult to forecast. A further problem for demographic forecasting is the estimation of uncertainty: estimates may vary considerably depending on the method of estimation (Goyer and Domschke, 1983).

Census has been taken in Nigeria during colonial time in 1866, 1871,

1896, 1901, 1911, 1921 and 1952. The censuses covered only the southern part of the country except for the 1952 census which was country wide, and the censuses before 1921 were based on administrative estimates rather than on an actual enumeration, Censuses during the independence were taken 1963, 1973, 1991 and 2006. The results from 1973 and 2006 were highly disputed. The preliminary result for 2006 indicates a population of 140 million people 700,000 enumerators were engaged in this operation. (Obasanjo, 2006).

Information collected during a census is used to assess the current welfare needs of the population as well as to project future needs to assist planners to make realistic future development needs and also assist the government in terms of development and planning of basic infrastructures (Obasanjo, 2006).

The world population is the sum total of all living humans on Earth. As of today, it is estimated to number 7.027 billion by the United States Census Bureau (USCB). The USCB estimates that the world population exceeded 7 billion on March 12, 2012 According to a separate estimate by the United Nations Population Fund, it reached this milestone on October 31, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2012).

According to Muogbo and Fagbemi (2007), an estimate of the total number of humans who have ever lived was prepared by of the non-profit Population Reference Bureau in 1995, and was subsequently updated in 2002. The updated figure totaled approximately 106 billion. Modeling is a way of using math equations to predict what will happen to a population over time, the first and simplest model was developed in the late 1700’s .

1.2     Statement of Problem

In some country, people live in difficult to reach areas because of mountains, deserts and forests. Wars make counting difficult and Nomads (people who move about) also make counting difficult. In Such places, Population forecasting is very expensive and frustrating. Majority are illiterate People who (can’t read or write) are unable to fill out the forms and most information are falsified either for political or religious reasons.

Population growth is difficult to predict because unforeseen events can alter birth rates, death rates, migration, or the resource limits on population growth. Birth rates may decline faster than predicted due to increased access to contraception, later ages of marriage, the growing desire of many women in such settings to seek careers outside of child rearing and domestic work, and the decreased economic “utility” of children in industrialized settings. Countries may also choose to undertake mitigation measures to reduce population growth. For example, in China, the government has put policies in place that regulate the number of children allowed to each couple. Other societies have already begun to implement social marketing strategies in order to educate the public on overpopulation effects. Certain government policies are making it easier and more socially acceptable to use contraception and abortion methods.

1.3     Objectives of the Study

The main aim of the study is to develop a model for population forecasting. Specific objectives are:

i.   To analyze the features of existing population census

ii.  To analyze comparative difference between the manual calculation system and the computerized system design

iii. To Design a population forecasting system using natural fund growth rate model and algorithm

iv. To implement the design of population forecasting system.

1.4     Significance of the Study

Population forecasting has a great potential to bring the government, policy makers, stakeholders and the general citizenry numerous benefits that has the implication to ensure that policies are formulated that help the country prepare for the unforeseen future.

The importance of demographical studies is clarified by the observation of the implications of rapid population growth. The chief problem concerning population in a country is to control population growth in correlation with the growth of health amenities, food supplies employment, education and housing.

Owing to the inherent advantages and ease to forecast close to authentic population figure by the geometric forecasting model we employed, the relevant authorities could borrow the ideas behind the model and improves on it and reap all the numerous benefit that is associated with it. 

1.5     Scope and Limitations of the Study

In this study i intend to demonstrate using statistical fund growth model to forecast the population figure using a graphical user interface that enables user to specify the number of years to be forecasted, and then the implemented system will return the forecasted population dynamically depending on the entry of the user. The population forecasted takes its initial values from year 2006, so years before 2006 are discarded. My study does not actually requires to retrieve data from a database, as such the system did not maintain any database, this is because the system generates it’s data dynamically on the fly, hence it does not require to archive or store its data

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