An Assessment of Corona Virus (COVID-19) on the Nigeria Economy
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
The World Health Organization (WHO)’s March 11 recognition of COVID-19 as a global pandemic has removed any doubt about the threat that the virus poses to every country in the world. The virus has now been detected in 152 countries, with more than 180,000 infected and more than 7,000 killed. Though Africa remains one of the regions with the fewest cases, the number of countries affected has increased over the past week. As of this writing, nearly 450 cases have been reported in 30 countries, concentrated in northern Africa and South Africa, with 10 deaths reported.
Many African countries have relatively weak health care systems, proactive measures to prevent the spread of the virus will be critical. Countries should step up campaigns to educate the public on best practices, including promoting good hygiene and social distancing, discouraging large public gatherings, and encouraging employers to protect the jobs of employees who require quarantine or treatment. Campaigns should elicit the help of religious and civil society leaders for maximum effect.
“It is unavoidable that the novel coronavirus epidemic will have a considerable impact on the economy and society” – China’s president Xi Jinping, televised address, February 23, 2020. “The spread of the new coronavirus is a public health crisis that could pose a serious risk to the macro economy through the halt in production activities, interruptions of people’s movement and cut-off of supply chains” – Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso. G20 gathering in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, February 24, 2020. “Honda Motor Co. will reduce vehicle output at two of its domestic plants in Saitama Prefecture for a week or so in March due to concerns about parts supply from China where a new coronavirus outbreak continues to disrupt economic activities” – Honda spokesperson, March 3, 2020. Besides its worrying effects on human life, the novel strain of coronavirus (COVID-19) has the potential to significantly slowdown not only the Chinese economy but also the global economy. China has become the central manufacturing hub of many global business operations. Any disruption of China’s output is expected to have repercussions elsewhere through regional and global value chains. Indeed, most recent data from China indicate a substantial decline in output. China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), a critical production index, fell by about 22 points in February. This index is highly correlated with exports and such a decline implies a reduction in exports of about 2 percent on an annualized basis. In other words, the drop observed in February spread over the year is equivalent to -2 percent of the supply of intermediate goods. Indicators on shipping also suggest a reduction in Chinese exports for the month of February. Container vessel departures from Shanghai were substantially lower in the first half of February with an increase in the second half. However, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index continues its decline thus indicating excess shipping capacity and lower demand for container vessels.
The case is also the same in Nigeria, the Corona virus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has put everything on hold in the country. The total figures of corona virus patients in Nigeria have risen to 12 after four new cases were confirmed in Lagos State on Thursday.
Lagos State health commissioner Akin Abayomi announced the new cases in Ikeja during a press conference. Abayomi disclosed that 14 people were tested but four tested positive for the coronavirus adding that one of the new index cases had contact with the third confirmed case in Nigeria. The commissioner said one of the patients, a Nigerian female, came into Lagos on Saturday, March 14, 2020, in a Turkish airline TK1830. A Nigerian man in his 50s who never travelled anywhere is among the new four cases, Abayomi said. He said the last patient is a Nigerian male who arrived the country in a Lufthansa (airline) LH568 on Friday, March 13, 2020. Abayomi said the patients have been isolated for treatment at the Infectious Disease Hospital, Yaba, Lagos. The commissioner, however, said more tests are being carried as there is a “combination of imported cases and local transmission. The Executive of Lagos State is meeting on the next stage of social distancing. “The best way to slow the rate is to halt the movement of the virus from person to person,” Abayomi said. “Currently, we are following over 1,300 people right now to find information about the state of their health and the number is increasing.” He appealed to people on the two flights to self-isolate themselves and contact the government.
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
The outbreak of corona virus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Nigeria has increase the level of tension and anxiety among citizens in the country. The virus unlike other cases we have had in this country is highly transmittable with severe signs and symptoms. The outbreak of corona virus disease (COVID-19) might have effect on the Nigeria economy through low imports and exports in the country, poor tourism remittance and commodity price rate in Nigeria. Lastly there have been studies on corona virus disease (COVID-19) but not even a single study is based on the effect of corona virus (COVID-19) on the Nigeria economy; hence a need for the study.
1.3 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The main aim of the research work is to determine the effect of corona virus (COVID-19) on the Nigeria economy. The specific objectives of the study are:
1. to determine the relationship between corona virus disease (COVID-19) and the Nigeria economy
2. to determine the causes of corona virus disease (COVID-19)
3. to determine the mode of transmission of the corona virus disease (COVID-19)
4. to determine the effect of corona virus disease (COVID-19) import and export rates in Nigeria
5. to determine effect of corona virus disease (COVID-19) on the education sector in Nigeria
6. to determine the effect of corona virus disease (COVID-19) on the health and well being of the Nigeria citizens
7. to recommends preventive measure to be adopted by the Nigeria government in fight against the corona virus disease (COVID-19)
1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS
The study came up with research questions so as to ascertain the above stated objectives of the study. The following research questions guide the objectives of the study:
1. What is the relationship between corona virus disease (COVID-19) and the Nigeria economy?
2. What are the causes of corona virus disease (COVID-19)?
3. What is the mode of transmission of the corona virus disease (COVID-19)?
4. What is the effect of corona virus disease (COVID-19) import and export rates in Nigeria?
5. What is effect of corona virus disease (COVID-19) on the education sector in Nigeria?
6. What is the effect of corona virus disease (COVID-19) on the health and well being of the Nigeria citizens?
7. What are the preventive measures to be adopted by the Nigeria government in fight against the corona virus disease (COVID-19)?
1.5 STATEMENT OF THE HYPOTHESIS
H01: there is no significant relationship between corona virus disease (COVID-19) and the Nigeria economy
H02: corona virus (COVID-19) has no significant effect on the Nigeria economy
H03: corona virus disease (COVID-19) has no significant effect on the education sector in Nigeria
1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
The study on the effect of corona virus disease (COVID-19) on the Nigeria economy will be of immense benefit to all the Nigeria citizens, the health sector, and the federal government of Nigeria. The study will explore the prevalence of corona virus disease (COVID-19), the causes, and the effect of the corona virus disease (COVID-19) the Nigeria economy. The study will educate the masses on the mode of transmission of the corona virus disease (COVID-19) and the preventive measures to be adopted. The study will educate the Nigeria government on the policy implementation to curb the prevalence of the corona virus disease (COVID-19) and how to improve the Nigeria economy during this period. The study will serve as a repository of information to other researchers that desire to carry out similar research on the above topic. Finally the study will contribute to the body of the existing literature on the effect of corona virus disease (COVID-19) on the Nigeria economy
1.7 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
The study will cover on the effect of corona virus disease (COVID-19) on the Nigeria economy
1.8 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
Financial constraint– Insufficient fund tends to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature or information and in the process of data collection (internet, questionnaire and interview).
Time constraint– The researcher will simultaneously engage in this study with other academic work. This consequently will cut down on the time devoted for the research work.
1.9 DEFINITION OF TERMS
NOVEL CORONA VIRUS DISEASE (COVID-19) :
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a new virus. The disease causes respiratory illness (like the flu) with symptoms such as a cough, fever, and in more severe cases, difficulty breathing. You can protect yourself by washing your hands frequently, avoiding touching your face, and avoiding close contact (1 meter or 3 feet) with people who are unwell.
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