Abstract

The main thrust of this study is to investigate the Dynamical model for the spread of rumors. In today’s anxiety-laden security environment, rumors can provide unique insights into the current grievances and fears of a given population; they can also act as powerful agents of influence. For example, by propagating rumors about civilian abuses at the hands of the government or military, an adversary can foster a sense of uncertainty and sow distrust between a government and its population. Conversely, by evaluating and understanding rumors currently circulating through a population, a government or military force can overcome obstacles to its programs, and can provide targeted messages of reassurance to the populace when necessary. Nowadays, with the emergence of the internet, rumors can be spread by instant messengers, emails, or publishing. With this new pattern of spreading, an ISRW dynamical model considering the medium as a subclass is established. Beside the dynamical analysis of the model, we mainly explore the mechanism of spreading of individuals-to-individuals and medium-to-individual. By numerical simulation, we find that if we want to control the rumor spreading, it will not only need to control the rate of change of the spreader subclass, but also need to control the change of the information about rumor in medium which has larger influence. Moreover, to control the effusion of rumor is more important than deleting existing information about rumor. On the one hand, government should enhance the management of internet. On the other hand, relevant legal institutions for punishing the rumor creator and spreader on internet who can be tracked should be established. Using this way, involved authorities can propose efficient measures to control the rumor spreading to keep the stabilization of society and development of economy.

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CHAPTER ONE 

INTRODUCTION/ Background of the Study

“Does finance make a difference . . .?” Raymond Goldsmith (1969, p. 408). “Do economies with higher levels of financial development experience more or less volatility in economic growth rate?” Thorsten Beck, Mattias Lundberg and Giovanni Majnoni (2000)

The impact of financial development on output volatility has been a hotly debated theoretical issue. Economists hold startlingly different opinions regarding the importance of the financial system for mitigating output volatility. While many economists have underlined the importance of financial sector development in the process of economic development others still think that its importance is over stressed. Bagehot W. (1873) and Hicks J. (1969) argue that it played a critical role in igniting industrialization in England by facilitating the mobilization of capital for “immense works.” Schumpeter J. (1912) contends that well-functioning banks spur technological innovation by identifying and funding those entrepreneurs with the best chances of successfully implementing innovative products and production processes. In contrast, Robinson J (1952, p. 86) declares that “where enterprise leads finance follows.” “Pioneers of development economics,” including three Nobel Laureates, does not mention finance (Meir, G and Seers, D. (1984)). Furthermore, Stern’s (1989) review of development economics does not discuss the financial system, even in a section that least omitted topics. In the light of these conflicting views, this project uses existing theory to organize an analytical framework of the finance-growth nexus and then assesses the quantitative importance of the financial system on output volatility. The notion that a negative relationship exists between financial development and output volatility has been recognized by a crop of development economists, and a large body of empirical literature supports that.  The role of financial market development in smoothing out output volatility cannot be over emphasized. Whether financial development influences output volatility is not just a matter of academic curiosity, it is a crucial policy issue as well.

The financial sector can be said to ‘develop’ for example: the efficiency and competitiveness of the sector may improve; the range of financial services that are available may increase; the diversity of institutions which operate in the financial sector may increase; the amount of money that is intermediated through the financial sector may increase; the extent to which capital is allocated by private sector financial institutions, to private sector enterprises, responding to market signals (rather than government directed lending by state owned banks), may increase; the regulation and stability of the financial sector may improve; particularly important from a poverty reduction perspective, more of the population may gain access to financial services. It involves the establishment and expansion of institutions, instruments and markets that support this investment and growth process through improvements in quality, quantity and efficiency of these financial intermediary services. Financial development is calculated by taking the ratio of private-sector credit to GDP. The ratio of private credit to GDP is a common measure of financial development (Levine, et al. 2000).

PROJECT TOPIC:A PANEL DATA APPROACH TO EXCHANGE VOLATILITY MODELS OF WEST AFRICA

The concept of volatility is a crucial issue in developing countries, since not only are output fluctuations larger and more abrupt in these economies, but also the ability to hedge against fluctuations is particularly limited by the weakness of their financial infrastructure. What is meant by “volatility”? A look at dictionary definitions yields a range of connotations: “tending to vary often or widely,” “unstable,” “changing suddenly,” “characterized by or prone to sudden change,” “unpredictable,” and “fickle. Greater volatility in developing countries stem from three sources. First, developing countries receive bigger exogenous shocks .These may come from the financial markets taking the form of sudden stop of capital inflows. Or they may come from goods market, especially as abrupt and large changes in the international term of trade. Second, developing countries seem to experience more domestic shocks .These are generated by a combination of the intrinsic instability of development process and self-inflicted policy mistakes .Government often instigate macroeconomic volatility by conducting erratic fiscal policy and ,even worse sometimes financing it through similarly volatile inflationary monetary policy .Third, developing countries have weaker “shock absorbers,” so external fluctuations have larger effects on their macroeconomic volatility economists have traditionally identified shock absorbers with two elements: financial markets to diversify macroeconomic risk and stabilization policies to counteract aggregate shocks. Both are deficient in developing countries, financial markets are shallow, drying up in times of crisis when they would be most useful and failing to provide adequate instruments to diversify the risks posed by external shocks.

For Nigeria, studying the relationship between financial development and output volatility is a vital one considering the continuing progress and reforms in the financial sector. Considered as an integral part of macroeconomic policy the financial sector reforms are expected to bring about significant economic benefits particularly through a more effective mobilization of savings and a more efficient allocation of resources thus putting the economy on the path of stable and sustainable economic growth and development. Nigeria has made notable efforts over the past years to reform its financial system going from the deregulation and liberalization of the financial sector activities under SAP in 1986, banking consolidation of 2004 and the recent financial system strategy (FSS) 2007 which hopes to make the country’s financial sector the growth catalyst that would ultimately engineer Nigeria’s evolution into an international financial center and a natural destination for financial products and services. Despite these great efforts Nigeria’s economic growth has been dwindling and fluctuating not strong enough to significantly reduce the prevailing level of poverty even though the various indicators used in measuring financial development has been increasing steadily over the years.

By any measure, developing countries always have the most macroeconomic volatility. The connection between volatility and lack of development is undeniable, making volatility fundamental development concern. Output volatility in developing countries has particularly welfare costs .No less important, output volatility has adverse effects on output growth and thus on future consumption. This is worst in countries that are poor, unable to conduct countercyclical fiscal policies or institutionally and financially underdeveloped.

INTRODUCTION

Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs) refers to a set of clinical infections in which a mode of transmission is through sexual contact, and in which at least, one partner is infected. Many of these infections spread predominantly through sexual intercourse, but in some others, sexual contact may play a less predominant or uncertain role. Most STDs are not, however spread through casual contact, vectors or formites.

Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) are recognized as a major public health problem in most of the industrialized world. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that, in the mid-1990s, 30 million curable sexually transmitted infections (syphilis, gonorrhea, Chlamydia and trichomoniasis) occurred every year in North America and Western Europe with an additional 18 million cases in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. These counts do not include incurable Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such as genital herpes and Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) infections, for which no up-to-date estimates have been derived by the WHO. Approximately 74, 000 new HIV infections are estimated to have occurred in 1997 in North America and Western Europe. Centre for disease Control and prevention (Sexually transmitted diseases Surveillance – 2011).

Although some increases in incidence are documented, it is unclear, how much of this upward trend is due to improvements in case ascertainment and surveillance or to actual increase in STD incidence. Most developed countries have seen dramatic declines in the incidence of Syphilis and gonorrhea since World War II. Some eastern European countries nevertheless have recently experienced increase in these two STDs.

STDs deserves attention, not only because of the high prevalence, but also because they frequently go undetected and untreated and can result in serious reproductive morbidity and mortality. Compared with the extensive efforts devoted to research and intervention on HIV and AIDS, very little attention has been paid to other STDs. Hence there is a need to increase awareness of, at least, one central aspect of most common curable STDs – their incidence. Recent findings shows that some STDs acts as a cofactor or facilitator for HIV transmission, arguing that research on STDs other than HIV and AIDS can also contribute to better insights into HIV infections. Sexually transmitted diseases are responsible for a variety of health problems and can have especially serious consequences for adolescents and young adults. CDC-STD Surveillance (2011).

Transmission

The mode of transmission varies among the different sexually transmitted diseases. Some bacteria or virus are found in vaginal secretions or semen (e.g. gonorrhea), while others are shed from the skin of and around the genitals (e.g. HSV and HPV). Infections typically occur during sexual intercourse or when the genitals come into close contact. Infections may also occur during oral sex. It may also be transmitted during non-censenting sex acts such as rape or molestation.

The transmission of STDs is more efficient from men to women than from women to men. For example, with just one unprotected sexual encounter with an infected partner, a woman is twice as likely to acquire gonorrhea or Chlamydia. In addition, different STDs have different rates of transmission. For example, with one unprotected sexual intercourse, a woman has 1 percent chance of acquiring HIV, 30 percent chance of acquiring herpes and 50 percent chance of contracting gonorrhea if her partner is infected. Macdonald and David (2003).

Several studies on STDs have been evaluating sexual behaviors for quite a while. Following HIV pandemic from 1980-1990s, the focus on sexual behaviors evaluation intensified. The researchers have been investigating sexual behaviors in a variety of context often asking the same questions for various purposes. Some authors evaluated sexual behaviors in relation with STDs in order to assess individuals’ risk of acquiring STDs. Others concentrated on specific groups to describe and identify high and low risk population. Kennedy and ZephantaMtaturu (2006). However, statistics on STDs show no sign of abating the ever increasing number of STDs and deaths due to the fact that HIV/AIDS are common now, particularly in developing countries. As the time goes on, the trend of sexually transmitted diseases is becoming a big problem among the youth. Kennedy and ZephantaMtaturu (2006).

Prevalence estimates suggests that young people aged 15-24 years acquire half of all new STDs and that 1 in 4 sexually active adolescent females have an STD, such as Chlamydia or HPV. Compared with other adults, sexually active adolescent aged 15-19 years and young adults aged 20-24 are at higher risk of acquiring STDs for a combination of behavioral, biological and cultural reasons. For some STDs, such as Chlamydia, adolescent females may have increased susceptibility to infection because of increased cervical ectopy. The higher prevalence of STDs among adolescents also may reflect multiple barriers to accessing quality STD prevention services, including lack of health insurance or ability to pay, lack of transportation, discomfort with facilities and services designed for adults and concerns about confidentiality. CDC (2011).

According to Ayo et.al. (2013), Nigeria has a fast growing population and is confronted with numerous health challenges. With a population of more than 150 million, the country’s population is young; therefore, the future of the country rests to a greater extent, on how successful, its youth have a transition to a healthy and productive adulthood. Adebowale (2013) et al in a research work on statistical modeling of social risk factors for sexually transmitted diseases among female youths in Nigeria argues that, STDs remain a major public health challenge because of their health consequences, several complications especially among women who excessively bear long term consequences. It was also stated that the prevalence of STDs among Nigerian female youths is 17 percent, arguing that STDs causes infertility in women and increases the risk of transmission of HIV/AIDS. Adopting a multi-staged probability sampling to select respondents among women of child bearing age (15-49 years), the study used data from records of ICF Macro Calverton, in conjunction with National Population Commission, Nigeria in 2008.

In light of this, this paper investigated the effect of the incidence of sexually transmitted diseases and survival among different age groups and gender in the target population using the age and gender of the patient, duration of hospital stay and type of sexually transmitted disease as independent variable. Three diseases were considered namely: Staphylococcus, Urinary Tract Infection (UTI) and Retroviral disease (RVD).