The Impact of Massive Infectious and Contagious Diseases and Its Impact on the Economic Performance: The Case of Wuhan, China
Introduction In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness is emerging caused by a novel (new) coronavirus (named “2019-nCoV”) that was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China and which continues to expand. Chinese health officials have reported tens of thousands of infections with 2019-nCoV in China, with the virus reportedly spreading from person-to-person in parts of that country. Infections with 2019-nCoV, most of them associated with travel from Wuhan, also are being reported in a growing number of international locations. At the time of this writing, Worldometer1 reported 28,726 confirmed 2019-nCoV incidents of which 3,826 are in critical condition, 565 died, and 1,170 recovered, affecting 28 countries and territories around the world (Worldometer, 2020). WHO is estimated that the novel coronavirus’ case fatality rate has been estimated at around 2 percent (WHO, 2020), substantially lower than Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS (34 percent) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS (10 percent)(Worldometer, 2020). The incubation period of the virus may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 (World Health Organization (WHO): 2-10 days; China’s National Health Commission (NHC): 2-14 days; The United States’ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and 10-14 days), during which the virus is contagious but the patient does not display any symptom (asymptomatic transmission). All population groups can be infected by the 2019-nCoV, however, seniors and people with pre-existing medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease) appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus. Beyond the public health impacts of regional or global emerging and endemic infectious disease events lay wider socioeconomic consequences that are often not considered in risk or impact assessments. Endemic infectious deseases set in motion a complex chain of events in the economy. They are rare and extreme events, highly diverse and volatile over time and across countries. Estimating terrorism risk depends upon several factors that varied by the type of activity. The idiosyncratic nature of endemic infectious deseases is based, among others, on the magnitude and duration of the event, the size and state of the local economy, the geographical locations affected, the population density and the time of the day they occurred. If the calculation of costs associated with death loss, chronically ill cattle marketed prematurely at a discount, and treatment are are readily traceable. the estimation of indirect costs such as reduced performance of the local labor force and/or the impact on the international travel and trade can be an onerous task. This paper formulates an analytical framework for estimating the economic consequences of endemic infectious disease both in terms of immediate policy response in the aftermath of the desease and of medium-term policy implications for regulatory and fiscal policy. The Integral Massive Infections and Contagious Diseases Economic Simulator (IMICDE-Simulator) – to evaluate an economy in times of massive infections and contagious diseases. The IMICDE-Simulator is based on seven basic indicators – (i) the massive infections and diseases contagious spread intensity (cidc), (ii) the level of treatment and prevention level (ηtp); (iii) the massive infections and diseases infected causalities (-Lidc); (iv) the economic wear from massive infections and diseases contagious (Πidc);
(v) the level of the massive infections and diseases contagious multiplier (Midc); (vi) the total economic leaking from massive infections and diseases contagious (Lidc-total); and (vii) the economic desgrowth from massive infections and diseases contagious (-δidc). To illustrate and illuminate the IMICDE-Simulator, we apply the simulator to the case of Wuhan coronavirus. The model investigates the uncertainty and behavioral change under a new perspective within the framework of a dynamic imbalanced state (DIS) (Ruiz Estrada & Yap, 2013) and the Omnia Mobilis assumption (Ruiz Estrada, 2011). The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 offers an overview of the massive infections and contagious diseases in China for the last twenty years. Section 3 describes Wuhan’s economy. Section 4 introduces the model. Section 5 sets a simulation framework and presents model findings for the Wuhan province. Section 6 concludes.
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